The Alliance of Sahel States (AES): A New Anti-Western Bloc in the Sahel

Introduction: The Birth of a Military Alliance

In September 2023, the military regimes of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger signed a mutual defense pact, formally establishing the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This development marked a historic realignment in regional geopolitics, as the three junta-led nations openly rejected Western influence and pivoted toward closer cooperation with Russia. The formation of the AES signals a bold and confrontational stance against ECOWAS, France, and the broader Western-led security framework in West Africa.

This article explores:

The origins and motivations behind the formation of the AES
The alliance’s objectives and structural framework
Russia’s role and the influence of the Wagner Group
The broader implications for regional stability, democracy, and geopolitics

1. Origins of the Alliance: A Response to Isolation

A. Shared Authoritarian Trajectories

All three member states of the AES are governed by military juntas that came to power through recent coups:

Mali (2020, 2021) – Led by Colonel Assimi Goïta
Burkina Faso (2022) – Headed by Captain Ibrahim Traoré
Niger (2023) – Controlled by General Abdourahamane Tchiani

Each regime justified its coup by citing the inability of previous civilian governments to contain the growing jihadist insurgencies across the Sahel.

B. Expulsion of French Forces

In a coordinated break from former colonial and security partnerships, all three countries expelled French military forces and terminated counterterrorism agreements with the West. They accused France of neocolonialism, and in some cases, of collusion with jihadist groups—a claim widely circulated and amplified through Russian disinformation networks.

C. ECOWAS Sanctions and Threats of Intervention

Following Niger’s coup in July 2023, ECOWAS threatened military intervention to restore constitutional order. This provoked a defensive reaction: Mali and Burkina Faso pledged to support Niger against any external aggression. This shared defiance catalyzed the creation of the AES, positioning the alliance as a strategic counterweight to ECOWAS and a symbol of collective sovereignty against foreign intervention.

2. Structure and Goals of the AES

Key Provisions of the Pact

✔ Mutual Defense Clause – An attack on one member is considered an attack on all, mirroring NATO-style solidarity.

✔ Joint Military Cooperation – Includes intelligence-sharing, training programs, and coordinated operations against insurgent groups.

✔ Economic Integration – Prospects include a shared currency, regional trade agreements, and coordinated economic policies.

✔ Rejection of Western Military Presence – The alliance prohibits Western military bases, yet permits the presence of Russian personnel and contractors.

AES vs. ECOWAS: Diverging Ideologies

AES (Military Juntas)	ECOWAS (Democratic Bloc)
Anti-Western, aligned with Russia	Pro-Western, aligned with France/US
Military rule with indefinite timelines	Advocates democratic transitions
Rejects external "interference"	Engages with international peacekeeping
Seeks Russian-backed security (Wagner)	Relies on Western-trained armed forces

3. Russia’s Role: The Wagner Factor

Wagner’s Expanding Footprint

Mali (since 2021): Approximately 1,500 Wagner mercenaries are reportedly active. The group has been implicated in human rights violations, including the Moura massacre.
Burkina Faso (since 2022): Wagner-style operations have been observed, although the government officially denies their presence.
Niger (post-2023 coup): Negotiations for Russian military assistance are reportedly underway, signaling potential future deployments.

Why Russia Supports the AES

Geostrategic Presence – Establishing military influence in the Sahel helps Russia undermine Western dominance in Africa.
Resource Access – Russian-backed entities secure access to gold, uranium, and other valuable minerals in exchange for security services.
Diplomatic Capital – Russia gains votes and support in multilateral forums like the UN General Assembly, reinforcing its global posture.

Replacing French Counterterrorism?

In the short term, Wagner offers aggressive counterinsurgency tactics, often accompanied by widespread reports of civilian casualties, which ironically fuel further jihadist recruitment.
In the long term, Wagner’s emphasis on regime security over counterterrorism effectiveness is likely to exacerbate instability, deepen governance failures, and alienate local populations.

4. Implications for the Sahel and Beyond

A. Security Risks

Jihadist groups such as JNIM (linked to al-Qaeda) and ISGS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara) may exploit the fragmentation between AES and ECOWAS forces.
The risk of war crimes and indiscriminate violence by AES forces and Wagner contractors threatens to worsen the humanitarian crisis across the region.

B. Erosion of ECOWAS Unity

The AES poses a direct threat to ECOWAS cohesion and authority, potentially inspiring similar anti-democratic uprisings in countries like Senegal or Guinea.
If the AES expands to include additional states such as Chad or Guinea, West Africa could face a polarized landscape, divided between military and democratic blocs.

C. Democracy in Decline

AES member states have postponed or canceled elections indefinitely, effectively entrenching military rule.
Media repression, civil society crackdowns, and the intimidation of opposition figures are becoming increasingly common, further eroding democratic norms.

D. Global Geopolitical Shift

Russia emerges as a central player in the Sahel, filling the vacuum left by retreating Western powers.
China may expand its economic footprint, capitalizing on anti-Western sentiment while avoiding security entanglements.
The United States and European Union now face severe limitations in their Sahel strategies, lacking reliable local partners to combat extremism or promote governance.

5. What’s Next for the AES?

Possible Scenarios

✔ Consolidation of Power – AES regimes maintain control, using Russian mercenaries to suppress dissent and secure territory.

✔ Escalation of Jihadist Violence – Increased clashes without significant gains for either side.

✔ Expansion of the Alliance – Other authoritarian-leaning states like Chad, Guinea, or Sudan may join.

✔ Standoff with ECOWAS – Renewed attempts by ECOWAS to restore democratic governance in Niger could spark a regional military confrontation.

Will the AES Endure?

Survival is likely if:
- Russia sustains its military and economic backing.
- Regimes maintain popular support by blaming Western powers for regional instability.
Collapse is possible if:
- Jihadists gain the upper hand militarily.
- Economic crises lead to mass unrest and rebellion from within.

Conclusion: A New Axis in the Sahel?

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is not just a military pact—it is a symbolic and strategic rejection of Western influence in West Africa. By aligning with Russia and the Wagner Group, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are prioritizing authoritarian stability over democratic governance.

However, the costs may be profound:

Authoritarian consolidation and political repression.
Worsening insurgencies, as brutal tactics alienate local populations.
Regional fragmentation, weakening collective responses to transnational threats.

As the geopolitical chessboard shifts, the AES has become a defining force in the Sahel’s trajectory. Whether it leads to greater sovereignty and security, or plunges the region into chaos and authoritarianism, will depend on decisions made in the coming months.