Introduction: The End of France’s Sahel Mission
France’s military engagement in Mali began in 2013 with Operation Serval, a rapid intervention to repel jihadist advances in the north. This later evolved into Operation Barkhane (2014–2022)—a broader, long-term counterterrorism campaign spanning multiple Sahelian countries. However, after nearly a decade, France concluded its withdrawal from Mali in November 2022, amid mounting anti-French sentiment, military coups, and Mali’s strategic pivot toward Russia. This marked not just the end of a French mission, but a transformative geopolitical shift with wide-ranging consequences for the region and for global counterterrorism efforts.
Why Did France Withdraw from Mali?
1. Collapsing Relations with Mali’s Junta
- Following military coups in 2020 and 2021, Mali’s transitional authorities adopted an increasingly confrontational stance toward France.
- The junta accused Paris of neocolonial interference and even collusion with jihadist groups, ultimately demanding a complete French exit.
- Instead of Western support, the regime turned to Russia’s Wagner Group, reshaping Mali’s external alliances.
2. Strategic Failure Against Jihadist Expansion
- Despite tactical successes, French operations failed to contain jihadist groups such as JNIM and ISGS, which expanded their reach into central Mali and beyond.
- Civilians grew disillusioned with France’s presence, blaming it for ongoing insecurity rather than crediting its efforts.
3. Surge in Anti-French Sentiment
- Large-scale protests in Bamako and other cities—often encouraged by Russian-backed disinformation campaigns—called for France’s departure.
- Propaganda accused France of arming terrorists and plundering Mali’s gold, further undermining its credibility on the ground.
4. Paris’s Strategic Reorientation
- France opted to reallocate resources toward more stable coastal West African states like Côte d’Ivoire and Benin.
- Simultaneously, the war in Ukraine drew French military and diplomatic attention, reducing its appetite for extended overseas commitments.
Consequences of France’s Withdrawal
1. A Security Vacuum in Mali
- Following France’s departure, jihadist attacks surged in central regions such as Mopti and Ségou.
- The expulsion of the UN’s MINUSMA mission in 2023 left Mali’s security landscape in the hands of its military and Wagner forces—both accused of operating with impunity.
2. Expansion of Wagner’s Influence
- Wagner mercenaries assumed control of key French military bases, including those in Gao and Timbuktu.
- Under Wagner’s watch, reports of massacres, arbitrary detentions, and ethnic targeting increased sharply, particularly in operations involving the Fulani community.
3. Regional Domino Effect: Burkina Faso and Niger Follow Suit
- Inspired by Mali, Burkina Faso’s junta (2022) also expelled French forces and embraced Russian support.
- Niger’s 2023 coup led to the ousting of French—and later U.S.—forces, completing a regional pivot away from the West.
- These three regimes formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023, an anti-Western bloc seeking closer ties with Moscow and other non-Western partners.
4. Weakening of European Counterterrorism Architecture
- The EU’s EUTM Mali training mission ended in 2023 amid deteriorating relations with the junta.
- France had relocated some forces to Niger, but the 2023 coup disrupted that fallback strategy—potentially ending France’s military footprint in the Sahel altogether.
France’s New Strategy: Pivot to Coastal West Africa
1. Building Stronger Ties with Gulf of Guinea States
- France is now prioritizing security partnerships with Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Togo, which face growing threats from Sahel-based insurgents.
- These states offer more political stability, and joint operations aim to prevent jihadist spillover into their territories.
2. Supporting Regional Security Initiatives
- Paris is backing the Accra Initiative, a regional coalition including Ghana, Benin, and others, aimed at reinforcing cross-border cooperation against extremist threats.
3. Shifting Toward a Lighter Military Footprint
- France’s future involvement in Africa will rely more on intelligence sharing, targeted drone strikes, and special forces missions, rather than large-scale troop deployments.
What’s Next for Mali and the Sahel?
1. A Pro-Russian Bloc in the Making?
- Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—through the AES—are deepening ties with Russia, Iran, and China, seeking military support and diplomatic backing.
- If Wagner consolidates its position, the Sahel could evolve into a Moscow-aligned security sphere, rivaling Western influence in the region.
2. Jihadist Groups Poised to Exploit the Void
- Wagner’s focus on regime protection rather than civilian security leaves rural areas vulnerable to jihadist infiltration.
- Groups like ISGS and JNIM may continue expanding their foothold, threatening not just the Sahel but also coastal West Africa.
3. Can France Regain Influence?
- In the short to medium term, a resurgence of French influence in Mali or its neighbors appears unlikely.
- Instead, France is recalibrating toward economic, development, and diplomatic engagements with more stable African partners—sidestepping direct military entanglements.
Conclusion: A New Strategic Landscape in the Sahel
France’s withdrawal from Mali marks not only the end of a decade-long military mission, but also the unraveling of a Western security architecture built around counterterrorism cooperation in the Sahel. In its place, a new order is emerging—one defined by military juntas, Kremlin-backed mercenaries, and rising extremist violence.
The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States reflects a deliberate rejection of Western involvement. Yet it remains uncertain whether Russia or Wagner can offer the sustainable security that France failed to provide. Meanwhile, jihadist groups continue to capitalize on the chaos, posing a growing threat to regional and international stability.
France’s pivot to the Gulf of Guinea may help contain the spread of violence, but its broader strategic retreat from the Sahel leaves a vacuum that is rapidly being filled—not by peace, but by competing powers and deepening instability.
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